The potential impact of Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on U.S.-China relations is a topic that warrants careful consideration, given the complex and often contentious nature of the bilateral relationship. Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021 was marked by significant friction between the United States and China, with lasting consequences that still resonate today. If Trump were to win again in 2024, it is likely that his approach to China would reflect both continuity and adaptation, shaped by the geopolitical realities of the post-2020 world, as well as his personal political style.
1. Trade and Economic Relations
Under Trump's first term, trade tensions with China were a defining feature of U.S.-China relations. The Trump administration initiated a trade war with China in 2018, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and the trade deficit. Trump's "America First" approach was grounded in the belief that China was exploiting the U.S. and that a more confrontational trade policy would compel Beijing to open its markets and make structural changes.
- Impact under a second Trump presidency: If Trump were re-elected, he would likely continue to take a hardline stance on trade with China. He might seek to renegotiate existing trade agreements, impose further tariffs, or take additional measures to limit Chinese economic influence in sectors like technology, infrastructure, and finance. The goal would be to force China to make more concessions on issues such as intellectual property protection, market access, and forced technology transfers. Furthermore, Trump could continue to push for decoupling or "reshoring" of American supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which would deepen the economic divide between the two nations.
2. Technology and Cybersecurity
The issue of technology has been a flashpoint between the U.S. and China, particularly with regard to Chinese technology companies like Huawei and TikTok, which have faced significant scrutiny in the U.S. for alleged ties to the Chinese government and concerns over data security and espionage. Trump’s administration placed several Chinese companies on an Entity List, restricting their access to American technology.
- Impact under a second Trump presidency: Trump would likely continue to press for strict measures against Chinese tech giants, viewing China’s technological rise as a national security threat. He may push for further decoupling in the tech sector, imposing restrictions on Chinese investments in U.S. companies or blocking the sale of sensitive technologies to Chinese firms. The ongoing race for technological supremacy, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and 5G networks, would likely become an even more prominent aspect of U.S.-China relations.
3. Geopolitical and Military Tensions
Trump's first term also saw a more confrontational approach to China in terms of military and geopolitical strategy. Trump's administration took a more aggressive stance in the South China Sea, where China has made territorial claims that the U.S. and its allies dispute. The U.S. conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China's expansive territorial claims, while increasing military partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific, such as Japan, India, and Australia.
Impact under a second Trump presidency: A second Trump term would likely see a continuation of this militarized posture, especially with regard to the South China Sea and Taiwan. Trump might also deepen U.S. security ties with key regional partners, and potentially be more willing to take risks in challenging China’s regional ambitions. Additionally, Trump’s "America First" foreign policy could lead him to consider reducing U.S. military commitments elsewhere (e.g., the Middle East) to focus more on countering China's influence.
On Taiwan, Trump's approach could be more unpredictable, given his past rhetoric and his desire to adopt policies that challenge the status quo. While not explicitly advocating for Taiwan's independence, Trump might push for greater U.S. support for Taiwan, including arms sales and political backing, which would anger China and escalate tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
4. Diplomatic Relations and Global Alliances
During his first term, Trump pursued an "America First" approach that often placed the U.S. at odds with its traditional allies. He criticized NATO and other international institutions, which he saw as unfairly benefiting from U.S. support. However, Trump also engaged with China directly, meeting with President Xi Jinping in an effort to negotiate trade deals.
- Impact under a second Trump presidency: A re-elected Trump might be less inclined to cooperate with international institutions that seek to counter China’s global rise. His approach to multilateralism would likely remain transactional, meaning he would prioritize what he perceives as U.S. interests over collective action. This could result in further disengagement from global institutions that are focused on issues like climate change, human rights, and global governance, and a more adversarial stance toward China in settings like the UN and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Conversely, Trump could also seek to reduce tensions with China bilaterally if he believes it benefits his domestic political standing, creating an unpredictable diplomatic environment.
5. Human Rights and Ideological Divide
While Trump often emphasized economic and strategic considerations in his foreign policy, his administration took action on human rights issues in China, such as the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, Hong Kong's pro-democracy protests, and China's repression of dissent. However, his actions were often inconsistent, and his administration was criticized for not doing enough to confront China's human rights abuses, while simultaneously seeking to engage in trade and economic relations.
- Impact under a second Trump presidency: Trump's approach to human rights in China would likely continue to be secondary to economic and geopolitical concerns. While he would likely continue to speak out against China's human rights abuses, his administration’s actions might be limited to sanctions or symbolic gestures, rather than sustained diplomatic pressure. Trump’s focus would be on trade and security issues rather than an ideological confrontation with China over human rights, which would leave the U.S.-China relationship defined more by power politics than moral or ideological competition.
6. The Global Stage: U.S.-China Competition and Bipolar World Order
One of the long-term consequences of Trump’s approach to China could be the solidification of a bipolar world order, with the U.S. and China as the dominant global powers. While Trump’s rhetoric might appeal to his base and domestic interests, it could further entrench the ideological and geopolitical divide between the two countries. This could lead to a scenario where the U.S. and China are locked in an ongoing competition for global influence, with both nations seeking to challenge each other’s economic, technological, and military dominance.
- Impact under a second Trump presidency: If Trump were to win again, the U.S.-China rivalry would likely intensify. This could manifest in more overt competition for influence in third-party countries, global trade, and technological supremacy. A Trump-led U.S. might push for a "free world" coalition to counter China's growing global presence, particularly in regions like Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. At the same time, China might seek to bolster its strategic relationships with Russia, Iran, and other nations opposed to U.S. influence, leading to a more polarized international system.